What Private Equity Actually Pays for HVAC Companies in 2026

Private equity's appetite for HVAC businesses has never been stronger. In 2023, PE firms accounted for just 8% of HVAC deals. By 2024, that number jumped to 23%. Through the first half of 2025, PE add-on transactions targeting HVAC service providers rose 88% year-over-year, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The question every HVAC owner asks is simple: what would they actually pay for my company? The answer depends on your size, your numbers, and which type of buyer you attract. This article breaks down the real deal data.

The 2025-2026 HVAC M&A Market by the Numbers

The HVAC M&A market set records in 2025. According to industry data compiled from S&P Global, PKF O'Connor Davies, and Capstone Partners, here is what the landscape looks like:

The numbers tell a clear story: more deals, higher multiples, and an increasing share going to private equity buyers. For HVAC owners with strong businesses, the selling environment has never been more favorable.

What PE Firms Actually Pay: Multiples by Business Size

The single biggest factor determining your multiple is your EBITDA. Larger businesses attract more sophisticated buyers who pay higher multiples. Here is the current data based on reported transactions and industry benchmarks from First Page Sage, Axial, and Kroll:

To put this in real dollar terms: a residential HVAC company generating $1.5 million in EBITDA with strong service contracts could sell for $9 million to $10.5 million at current multiples. Five years ago, that same business might have sold for $6 million to $7.5 million.

The jump from the $500K-$1M bracket to the $1M-$3M bracket is where the economics shift dramatically. Below $1M EBITDA, you are typically selling to individuals or small search funds. Above $1M, you enter PE territory, where the multiple framework expands and competition among buyers drives prices higher.

The Major PE Platforms and What They Have Built

Understanding who is buying helps you understand what they will pay. Here are the most active PE-backed platforms in HVAC as of early 2026:

Apex Service Partners (Alpine Investors)

Apex leads the entire HVAC PE landscape with over 107 acquisitions, making it the most prolific acquirer in the space according to Grata's PE Playbook. The bulk of their acquisitions target residential and commercial HVAC, plumbing, and electrical companies. Alpine Investors, the PE firm behind Apex, highlighted the platform in their 2025 Year-in-Review as a flagship holding. Apex focuses on companies with $1M-$5M EBITDA in markets across the United States, with a preference for operators who have strong service agreement revenue and established management teams.

Sila Services (Goldman Sachs)

Goldman Sachs completed a $1.7 billion acquisition of Sila Services, making it one of the largest HVAC platform transactions in history. Prior to the Goldman acquisition, Sila operated over 30 companies across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic under backing from Morgan Stanley Capital Partners. Sila has completed 28+ acquisitions since 2021, focusing on residential HVAC, plumbing, and electrical services. Their geographic concentration in the Northeast means they pay particular attention to heating-dominant markets in states like Connecticut, New York, and Pennsylvania.

Orion Group (Alpine Investors)

Orion has made over 35 acquisitions since Alpine Investors formed the platform in November 2020. Unlike Apex's residential focus, Orion targets commercial facility services including HVAC/R, plumbing, and design-build work. Commercial HVAC businesses with strong recurring service contracts are their primary targets. PKF O'Connor Davies describes the commercial HVAC segment as "early in its consolidation cycle," meaning there is significant runway for platforms like Orion to continue acquiring.

Heartland Home Services

Heartland has built a portfolio of 40+ companies with a methodical focus on the Midwest. Their thesis is straightforward: acquire well-run HVAC businesses in markets like Cleveland, Omaha, and other Midwest metros where competition from coastal PE platforms is lower. For HVAC owners in the Midwest, Heartland represents a buyer who understands the regional dynamics and seasonal patterns of heating-dominant markets.

FirstCall Mechanical (SkyKnight Capital)

FirstCall has completed 15 acquisitions since SkyKnight took control in January 2022, with a specific focus on the high-growth Southeast region. Markets like Atlanta, Tampa, and Charlotte are their primary hunting grounds. The Southeast's population growth and year-round cooling demand make it one of the most attractive regions for HVAC PE investment.

Crete United (Churchill / Ridgemont / ZBS Partners)

Crete United operates as a nationwide mechanical services platform, acquiring HVAC and mechanical contractors across the country. Their focus skews toward commercial and industrial HVAC, making them a key buyer for larger mechanical contractors. Recent acquisitions include Blue Mountain Mechanical, expanding their footprint in the Mountain West region.

Strategic Buyers: Ferguson and Carrier Global

Beyond PE platforms, strategic buyers remain active. Ferguson has completed over 50 acquisitions in the past five years, including three in the quarter ended April 2025 alone. Carrier Global maintains a $10 billion acquisition budget that includes HVAC service companies. Strategic buyers often pay premium multiples because they can extract synergies that financial buyers cannot.

What Drives a Premium Multiple

Not all HVAC businesses at the same EBITDA level receive the same multiple. The spread between a 4x and a 7x multiple at the $1M-$3M EBITDA level comes down to specific value drivers:

Recurring Revenue Percentage

Businesses with 30%+ of revenue from maintenance and service agreements consistently command 1x-2x higher multiples than installation-heavy businesses. PE firms underwrite recurring revenue at a premium because it is predictable, high-margin, and creates a built-in replacement pipeline. If your service agreement revenue is below 20%, building this before going to market is one of the highest-ROI moves you can make. Read more about how service agreements increase your HVAC business value.

Owner Dependency

A business that requires the owner to run daily operations is worth less than one with a management team in place. PE buyers are acquiring dozens of companies simultaneously. They need businesses that can operate independently from day one. If you are the primary estimator, the lead salesperson, and the person who handles every escalation, your multiple will reflect that risk. Our guide on owner dependency as a valuation killer covers this in detail.

Geographic Market

Sun Belt markets command premiums. HVAC businesses in Texas, Florida, Arizona, and Georgia benefit from population growth, year-round demand, and strong construction activity. A $2M EBITDA business in Houston or Phoenix will typically attract more buyer interest and a higher multiple than an equivalent business in a flat-growth market. That said, heating-dominant markets like Hartford and Cleveland are seeing increased buyer interest as platforms like Sila and Heartland expand their footprints.

Revenue Mix: Commercial vs. Residential

Commercial HVAC businesses often command higher multiples because contracts are larger, relationships are stickier, and the segment is earlier in its consolidation cycle. A business with a balanced mix of commercial and residential revenue is particularly attractive because it provides diversification. See our analysis of residential vs. commercial HVAC valuations.

Clean Financials and Documentation

PE firms conduct rigorous due diligence. Businesses with audited or reviewed financials, documented SOPs, CRM data, and organized customer records close faster and at higher multiples. Messy books do not just slow down a deal. They reduce the multiple because the buyer prices in the risk of what they cannot verify. Our due diligence checklist covers exactly what buyers will ask for.

Recent Notable Transactions

These real deals illustrate the range of what PE is paying in the current market:

The Sila transaction at $1.7 billion is significant because it demonstrates the platform value that PE creates through roll-ups. Goldman Sachs did not pay $1.7 billion for 30 individual HVAC companies. They paid for the integrated platform, the management infrastructure, and the growth trajectory. This is why PE firms can afford to pay 5x-7x for individual add-on acquisitions: the assembled platform is worth far more than the sum of its parts.

Where We Are in the Cycle

Industry analysts at PKF O'Connor Davies describe the residential HVAC services segment as "midway through a consolidation cycle." Commercial HVAC is still early. According to Capstone Partners, many PE buyers who entered the space in 2020-2021 are now preparing exits, while new financial buyers are launching fresh platform builds to replace them.

"Midway through" means the easiest acquisitions have been completed. The most attractive targets with clean books, clear succession needs, and strong service revenue have been picked off. But with roughly 114,000 HVAC businesses in the United States, the market remains highly fragmented. There is significant runway for continued consolidation.

For sellers, this creates an interesting dynamic. The first wave of PE platforms has proven the model works. The second wave of buyers entering the market now has to compete harder for quality acquisitions, which supports higher multiples. If your business fits the profile PE is looking for, you have leverage.

How to Position Your Business for a Premium Exit

Based on what PE platforms are actually paying premiums for, here are the concrete steps that move the needle:

Build recurring revenue to 30%+ of total revenue. Every percentage point of service agreement revenue above 20% directly increases your multiple. Start converting one-time customers to maintenance contracts today.

Reduce owner dependency over 12-18 months. Hire or promote a general manager. Document your processes. The goal is to demonstrate that the business runs without you for weeks at a time. This is the single biggest multiple expander for businesses in the $1M-$3M EBITDA range.

Clean up your financials. Engage a CPA to prepare reviewed or compiled financial statements. Separate personal expenses from business expenses. Ensure your QuickBooks or accounting system matches your tax returns. Buyers will verify everything.

Invest in technology. ServiceTitan, Housecall Pro, or equivalent field service management software signals operational maturity. GPS fleet tracking, automated dispatch, and CRM data all contribute to a buyer's confidence in the business.

Time your exit strategically. The current market favors sellers, but PE cycles run 3-5 years. The platforms that entered in 2020-2021 are approaching exit timelines, creating a window where new entrants are competing aggressively for acquisitions. This window will not stay open indefinitely. Read our analysis on whether to sell now or wait.

Understanding the Deal Structure

The headline multiple is only part of the equation. PE deals typically include several components that affect your total proceeds:

Cash at close: Usually 60-80% of the total deal value. This is your guaranteed payout.

Seller note or earnout: 10-25% of the deal value, paid over 1-3 years based on performance targets. PE firms use earnouts to align incentives and reduce risk.

Equity rollover: Many PE buyers ask sellers to reinvest 10-20% of proceeds back into the platform. This gives you a "second bite of the apple" when the platform eventually sells. In many cases, the rollover equity has generated returns that exceed the original sale price.

Non-compete and transition period: Expect a 2-3 year non-compete and a 6-12 month transition period where you remain involved in the business.

Understanding these components is critical because a 6x multiple with 80% cash at close and 20% rollover is a very different outcome than a 7x multiple with 60% cash, a 2-year earnout, and a 20% rollover. Learn more about what happens after you sell and the tax implications of different deal structures.

The Bottom Line

Private equity is paying more for HVAC businesses than at any point in the industry's history. The combination of a fragmented market, essential service demand, recurring revenue potential, and an aging ownership base has created a perfect environment for sellers.

The data shows multiples ranging from 3.4x for smaller businesses to 10x+ for premium operators. The major platforms, including Apex (107+ acquisitions), Sila ($1.7B valuation), Orion (35+ acquisitions), and Heartland (40+ companies), are actively seeking quality HVAC businesses across the country.

If you are considering an exit, the first step is understanding where your business falls in the multiple range. Our free valuation scanner provides a data-driven estimate based on your specific metrics, with no obligation and no sales calls.

Get Your Free HVAC Business Valuation

Sources:

• S&P Global Market Intelligence, "HVAC deals demonstrate private equity's appetite for add-ons," October 2025, https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/10/hvac-deals-demonstrate-private-equity-s-appetite-for-add-ons-94359580
• S&P Global Market Intelligence, "Platform plays in HVAC industry; record private equity megadeal value," October 2025, https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/10/platform-plays-in-hvac-industry-record-private-equity-megadeal-value-94457026
• PKF O'Connor Davies, "US HVAC M&A Industry Update - Summer 2025," August 2025, https://www.pkfod.com/insights/us-hvac-ma-industry-update-summer-2025/
• Capstone Partners, "HVAC Equipment Market Update," November 2025, https://www.capstonepartners.com/insights/report-hvac-equipment-market-update/
• Grata, "The PE Playbook: HVAC 2025," March 2025, https://grata.com/resources/hvac-pe-playbook-2025
• First Page Sage, "HVAC EBITDA & Valuation Multiples - 2025 Report," February 2025, https://firstpagesage.com/business/hvac-ebitda-valuation-multiples/
• Kroll, "M&A in the Residential HVAC Services Industry," November 2025, https://www.kroll.com/en/publications/ma-residential-hvac-services-industry
• Alpine Investors, "2025 Year-in-Review," February 2026, https://alpineinvestors.com/update/2025-year-in-review/